The best punters take all the knowledge they can get, analyse the data and bet where the price is wrong, not on what they hope will happen.
In 2011 the most senior Pilots from the wider betting and gaming industry gathered in a private room in Mark’s Club. A proposal had been tabled. The data predicted upcoming political turbulence.
The proposal was for the entire industry to take the lead on social responsibility. Just as the drinks industry had done. Just as the petrochemical industry did by promoting green efficiency.
The industry was tasked to unite behind the seemingly uncontroversial libertarian umbrella of “the tax payer’s right to spend their money in a free, liberal and regulated society, as they wanted…”.
The reciprocity was that the industry must take the lead on responsibility. The industry had the data, the resources and now a populist casus bello to re-set the political and societal agenda for the next 20 digital years.
Some Pilots did not trust the data. They applauded themselves because the industry was now legal. Government should be grateful, they reflected. They chose parochial in-fighting. They rejected the proposal.
In a subsequent visit to Whitehall, the same Pilots were dismissed with the now immortal phrase “you do not even acknowledge what game is being played; you are telling us how to play rugby, but we are playing cricket …”.
Meanwhile, their Adversaries, fuelled with a strong narrative, buoyed by the Pilots’ hubris and exhibiting a true knowledge of “the game”, exploited the disunity.
The game was politics. The rules; self-interest and votes.
Real social responsibility was subjugated to the game. That is, every party recognising that commercial imperatives can co-exist alongside bold and effective responsibility initiatives, across the piste, based on accurate data.
Some Pilots still dismiss this summarily as capitulation.
Others who myopically funded the damage to one section of the industry (thinking it to be to their commercial advantage) are relishing their expensive red wine moment. They may still be around when this ill wind turns, as it surely will, and blows them no good.
Some Pilots should have forced the issue harder when they knew the data was right.
Some, who claim to be motivated by altruism, should perhaps have the honesty of the mirror.
Some, with thinly veiled political ambition, should acknowledge, openly, that once this particular campaign is over, they will continue promoting their pet project – that is, themselves.
The data shows, clearly, that the real battle for the “hearts and minds”, the future sustainability of the industry, will be waged online. Helping protect the vulnerable in their bedrooms or on their phones. Whitehall knows this and is manoeuvring towards it. The Treasury knows this and is manoeuvring towards it. The industry knows it.
FOBTs are merely a visible, easy, lightning rod. True responsibility is channel agnostic. True responsibility rests online.
Shareholders, the silent activists, demand to be fed and watered over the long run. They have a duty to promote sustainability, if for no other reason than self-interest.
The addict needs to be educated and helped. Not to stop drinking whisky, so he can turn to vodka. But from drink itself. But the addict has to take the responsibility for stopping.
The industry must lead. The individual must acknowledge and act. The freedom, the right to entertainment, must be protected for the majority. Each of these can co-exist if there is the will based on the data.
The Pilots got it wrong. They must be honest now and admit that they failed the industry, they failed their customers and, more so, failed their shareholders, who will suffer the financial damage for their lack of foresight. It may not save them, but may mitigate the sentence.
Those who claim victory should at least, please, admit it is deeply pyrrhic, or do it in the name of personal aggrandisement, not the protection of those who need it.
Good gamblers look at the data and bet where the price is wrong, not on what they hope will happen. The data told the industry how to act, years ago.
The game is not quite over, but the chance to cash out with only a modest loss may be lengthening.
Al Insky
February 2018